MONDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2001 — With each passing day, it seems increasingly likely that former secretary of labor Robert Reich will run for the Democratic nomination for governor.

Sunday saw a political coming-out of sorts: an op-ed piece in the Boston Globe in which he fretted over the failure of state officials to tend to such crucial economic-development needs as workplace skills and affordable housing. Today, the Boston Herald’s Joe Battenfeld reports that Reich is raising money, and that he’s taking steps to line up party support.

In theory, at least, Reich could be a formidable candidate. Over the weekend, polls taken by both the Herald and the McCormack Institute at UMass Boston showed that support for Republican governor Jane Swift is slipping. Moreover, Reich, a well-known commentator on economic and political issues, polls about as well as state treasurer Shannon O’Brien — the Democratic frontrunner — in head-to-head match-ups with Swift.

But if Reich continues along his present path, his candidacy is likely to be short-circuited by intraparty politics. Battenfeld’s story focuses on the Democratic caucuses, to be held on the ungodly early date of February 2, when the hardest of hardcore party activists will gather in the snow to elect delegates to the June convention.

Reich hopes to line up support at those caucuses because he needs to get at least 15 percent of the convention delegates in order to make the primary ballot. But his task is likely to be difficult, if not impossible. The last thing insiders such as Senate president (and gubernatorial candidate) Tom Birmingham want is an articulate, potentially well-funded outsider such as Reich swooping in and taking away some of their support. Thus, Reich’s candidacy could end before it even begins.

What Reich should do is run as an independent. No, he doesn’t exactly fit the model of a successful independent candidate. Winners such as Maine governor Angus King and Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura have generally done it by eschewing political ideology in favor of populist, anti-party appeal. Since Reich, a co-founder of the American Prospect magazine, would likely stand well to the left of both Governor Swift and whoever the Democrats ultimately choose, that route wouldn’t be available to him.

But Reich is not exactly a loyal Democrat. Upset by former boss Bill Clinton’s move to the center, Reich has complained that the Democratic Party is "expired and gone." Then there is the peculiar nature of Massachusetts politics. The most liberal governor in the state’s history was a Republican: Frank Sargent, who in 1974 was beaten by a no-new-taxes candidate by the name of Michael Dukakis. (Beset by a massive budget deficit, Dukakis ended up presiding over the largest tax increase in state history.) The current string of Republican governors was kicked off by Bill Weld, elected in 1990 because he was perceived as more liberal than the Democrat, John Silber, on a few key issues, such as the environment, reproductive choice, and gay rights. With no real tradition of liberal Democratic governors in Massachusetts (notwithstanding Dukakis’s move to the left in his second and third terms), there’s no reason why Reich should feel he has to take the party route.

By running as an independent, Reich would ensure that he’ll be around next fall, when voters are actually paying attention. There is a risk, of course, that he might be lumped with other third-party candidates. Carla Lowell, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party, both seem a good bet to be better organized and more visible than is typical of minor-party candidates, which could hurt Reich.

But if Reich is serious, he needs to take his best shot. And that means he has to be speaking to voters in October — not begging for favors from party insiders in February.

CORRECTION: In a piece on American Talib John Walker (see " Today’s Jolt, " December 4), I wrote that Walker could find himself hauled before one of George W. Bush’s military tribunals. In fact, the tribunals specifically exclude American citizens.