Thursday, November 7, 2002 -- Having the Republicans retake the Senate may end up being the worst thing that happened to President George W. Bush.

This is not mere wishful thinking. To my analysis, the Republicans did so well on Tuesday because they did a far better job than the Democrats of capturing the center. In other words, the reason the Democrats lost was not that they ceded the issue of Iraq and the economy to Republicans, but that the essentially centrist voters who decide elections were turned off a couple of things late in the campaign. The memorial service turned political rally for Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone turned many stomachs. As did the vow of Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic National Committee chairman, to refight the battle of Florida. Meanwhile, Bush deftly moved slightly leftward. Remember, Bush and Karl Rove worked hard to make sure they had more centrist candidates in place to campaign for. That’s why Bush backed John Sununu over incumbent Bob Smith for the New Hampshire senate seat. As the National Review editorializes: "The conservatism that won in 2002, in comparison to the conservatism of 1980 or 1994, is a chastened one. This president is not likely to overreach, as Newt Gingrich did on Medicare."

Don’t be so sure. All this could be about to change. With the GOP in charge of the Senate -- and the Judiciary Committee -- the Republican floodgate on judicial appointments is about to open. A slew of conservative judicial appointments are poised to now breeze through the Senate. But that’s not all. Chief Justice William Rehnquist turned 78 last month. It’s likely that he might take the two-year window with a Republican president and senate as a signal to resign. That leads local Republican consultant and Harvard Law School graduate Jim Nuzzo to predict -- as he did at a Johnny’s Luncheonette breakfast this morning -- "You could see a Chief Justice Scalia within two years."

You know what that means. The ultra-conservative Antonin Scalia is constitutionally-incapable of not over-reaching. Lord knows how many of the other justices may take the next two years as their time to step down. True, Bush may be able to limit himself to judges who are moderately conservative, but not that moderate. The Bushies are still smarting over the appointment of David Souter to the court, who turned out to oppose them on abortion and other key issues. So it will be conservative judges for the nation’s highest court.

And that’s not where the country is. The judicial play will prompt voters to recognize how far right Bush really is and he could pay come 2004. All that presumes stasis in the war on terror and restraint on the part of House Democrats. (A Democratic party under the leadership of Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco could be a disaster from a national perspective. Pelosi’s great but she won’t play well in the heartland.) Still, I can’t imagine judicial conservatives keeping themselves in check until 2004.