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[talking politics]

It’s the turnout, stupid (continued)


In fact, not everyone agrees that Lynch will benefit from the way the turnout issue unfolds. The Joyce campaign not only hopes to capture financial support from progressive organizations, but contends that its large suburban base could put Joyce over the top. Should Jacques run, she would be the only woman in the race, and would likely pin her hopes on an outpouring of support from women and progressives. Partisans of State Senator Marc Pacheco argue that the urban southern portion of the district, encompassing Taunton and Brockton, can be mobilized South Boston–style to vote en masse for the local pol. They also point out that both Brockton and Taunton are holding local elections on the same day, which could increase turnout there. “All traditional assumptions can be thrown out the window in this race,” says Pacheco. “My assumption is, the traditional assumption of 85,000 or higher [voter turnout] just won’t be there. It will depend on the organizational abilities of the candidates in the race.” Still, he says, “I would expect the numbers in the southern tier to be higher.”

Some people don’t even accept the premise that Southie will see high turnout. “Suburban voters are much more reliable voters than urban voters,” argues Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh, who is neutral at this point in the race. She adds that today’s South Boston is a far cry from the voter-rich bastion it was a generation ago, when it was populated mainly by long-time residents instead of by newcomers, who tend not vote in local elections. A little more than two years ago — even before the current real-estate boom intensified — a neighborhood survey of South Boston by Northeastern University’s Center for Labor Market Studies found that 37 percent of respondents had moved to South Boston since 1990, and that half had not lived there before 1980. According to several accounts, newcomers outnumbered long-time residents three to one at the polls during the 2000 presidential election. (See “New Kids on the Block,” News and Features, March 15.) But these are just the type of voters who typically don’t vote in special-election congressional primaries. Marsh further believes that disenchantment with the Bush administration could fuel a wave of progressive support for Jacques throughout the district. “It’s an opportunity for the people of Massachusetts to send a message,” she says. “This district is more progressive than has been reported. If [a real progressive ran] it would be a catalyst for more progressive suburban voters.”

SO WHO’S right in this debate over turnout? Nobody can predict the future. But political analysts do rely on the past to help them determine the trends. Since January, for example, two other special elections have been held, in Virginia and California. On June 19, residents of the Fourth District of Virginia cast their votes to decide who would replace Representative Norman Sisisky, a conservative Democrat, who died of lung cancer earlier in the year. The race pitted Louise Lucas, an African-American Democrat, against Randy Forbes, a conservative Republican. The contest drew national attention because President Bush recorded a telephone message on Forbes’s behalf, and Vice-President Cheney campaigned for him in the district. Though African-Americans turned out in large numbers — 48 percent of registered voters — Forbes prevailed. Overall, turnout was 38 percent — far higher than what’s expected here on September 11, but somewhat low given that the vice-president of the United States was stumping on the trail.

This year’s other congressional special election saw California state senator Diane Watson, a Democrat, face Noel Hentschel, a Republican, in a race to replace Congressman Julian Dixon, who died in December. Just 84,000 voters turned out for the open primary in April, when Republicans, Democrats, and third-party candidates appeared on the same ballot. In the final election in June, 97,000 voters went to the polls — a better showing than at the primary, but then again, the election took place on the same day as the hotly contested Los Angeles mayoral race.

As far as our state’s special election is concerned, history suggests that a primary held eight days after Labor Day is bound to attract lower turnout than a regularly scheduled election. Moakley typically drew between 150,000 and 180,000 votes in the years he held the seat. (Turnout statistics for congressional races are not consistently available. The secretary of state’s office compiles voter stats on state races, but gathering such information for congressional races is more difficult because most congressional districts don’t correspond neatly with cities and towns. Formulating precise percentage figures requires complicated precinct-by-precinct analysis.)

Though the recent election in Virginia attracted relatively high turnout for a special election, it may not be a relevant precedent here. Many Virginia voters went to the polls to register their feelings about the Bush administration — and despite what Marsh suggests, it would be hard to see a Lynch-Joyce-Jacques-Pacheco battle as a referendum on the president. As socially conservative as he is, Lynch still devoted considerable time and resources to campaigning for Al Gore in the presidential election, both in New Hampshire and in West Virginia.

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Issue Date: July 12-19, 2001






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