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The Red Sox’ worst nightmare; and AFC thumbnails at the 1/8-pole
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Before we take a look at the AFC capsule summaries through two weeks of play, imagine the following scenario:

It is the morning of Friday, September 26, and the final weekend of the Major League Baseball regular season looms. The Sox have in the past week run up the white flag to the Yankees, surrendering top honors in the AL East. Now, Boston’s only hope of reaching the post-season is to secure the wild-card. Envisage a situation in which Oakland has established a four-game lead over Seattle in the AL West, and earlier that week at home against Texas the A’s actually celebrated clinching the division title. With the Mariners now out of the title hunt in the West, they too must concentrate their efforts on the wild-card berth. Let’s say that the Red Sox head into their final weekend at Tampa Bay leading the wild-card race by a game over Seattle, with the M’s wrapping up the regular season with a three-game home series against the division-winning A’s.

This is where things could get interesting. Suppose Oakland decided two things: first, that it will rest the regulars, and secondly, that it will get its post-season rotation in order. To accomplish both, A’s management decides to bench nearly all of their everyday players and instead field a team made up primarily of the minor-leaguers brought up at beginning of September when the rosters expanded to 40. In essence, the A’s, with the AL West already clinched, could conceivably use the weekend to just toss away the remaining three games at Safeco Field and focus instead on the upcoming playoffs. By losing those final three games in Seattle to the Mariners, the A’s not only rejuvenate their line-up for the upcoming week, but also, by extension, give Seattle three much-needed wins in order to secure the wild-card.

But the A’s would be doing themselves another favor as well. If they allow Seattle to take the wild-card instead of Boston, the playoff alignment would change, and no longer would Boston — as the wild-card champ — come to Oakland for the division series. Instead, with the A’s intra-division rival Seattle taking the wild-card at Boston’s expense, Oakland would instead draw the AL Central Division winner in the first round. For Oakland’s purposes, they would most likely much prefer Chicago, Kansas City, or Minnesota (who will all presumably finish with around 85 wins) rather than the power-hitting 95-win Boston juggernaut that they would otherwise meet.

In that scenario, Boston would need to sweep the Devil Rays in that regular-season finale to clinch the wild-card; otherwise, if Boston took only two of three, it would finish tied with Seattle, necessitating a one-game playoff to determine the wild-card champ. And the locale would be — you guessed it — Seattle, where the Sox would have to fly immediately following the Tampa series for the winner-take-all clash the next day.

In addition, if this game had to be played, the Sox would be forced to pitch Pedro Martinez, thereby sacrificing him for the first two road games of the division series (if they won). Even worse, if Boston lost two of three in Tampa, this remarkably memorable season would end on an even more somber note: ending the season at Tropicana Field and find themselves, for the fifth straight season, shut out of the playoffs altogether.

It could happen.

Just two weeks of the 16-week NFL schedule are complete, and while we certainly don’t have much to go on thus far, this is what we can surmise from AFC’s first fortnight:

• Buffalo (2-0): It got a break playing a minds-elsewhere Patriots team at home last week, and pummeled a weak Jacksonville team this past weekend. Still, it’s clear that Buffalo is solid offensively and much-improved defensively, although a better test will come this weekend at Miami.

• Miami (1-1): Sure, they beat the Jets on Sunday at the Meadowlands, but only by a 21-10 count. It could and should have been a lot worse, considering the Jets’ situation. In addition, the Fins tossed away a surefire win last week in their debacle with the visiting Texans, so Dave Wannstedt’s team better have the Bills’ number next week or it could be out of it by Thanksgiving.

• New England (1-1): Both Patriot games should have asterisks attached. Last week’s loss in Buffalo was obviously a result of the Milloy mess, despite the players’ protestations otherwise. The Pats still might have lost with Milloy still in their fold, but they certainly wouldn’t have been whitewashed, 31-0, nor would they have played the emotionless contest that they did. Sunday’s opponent, the Eagles, played one of the worst games imaginable, surrendering six turnovers and completing just 20 of 48 passes. Still, the New England defense was swarming, and was responsible for many of the Eagles’ miscues, and Tom Brady did an admirable job leading the offense. Emerging 1-1 from two tough road games, and with the Jets and Redskins on deck, the Pats look to be in the hunt from here on in.

• New York (0-2): Losses at Washington and at home to Miami were not unexpected, but it seems clear that New York will struggle in every game it’s in, and a three- or four-win season would not be surprising. I worry for Vinny Testaverde’s health against the Patriot blitz next week.

• Houston (1-1): A stunning effort against Miami in Week 1, followed by a return to form at New Orleans yesterday. The Texans are certainly not an automatic victory anymore, although they’ve got a ways to go to reach respectability, last week’s Miami win notwithstanding.

• Indianapolis (1-1): Watch out. Tony Dungy’s team showed that it can win it with defense (in a 9-6 road win at Cleveland) or with offense, as it did in Sunday’s blitzkrieg victory over the talented Titans. Edgerrin James looks like he’s back from the debilitating injuries that hampered his 2002 campaign, and the Colts could be 4-0 when they visit Tampa on October 6.

• Jacksonville (0-2): The Jags will need some time to get acquainted with their new coaching staff, although blowing a big lead a week ago and then getting pounded by the Bills on Sunday is a pretty rotten how-do-you-do. There’ll be some growing pains and eventual improvement the rest of this season, but right now they’re an easy mark, especially defensively (61 points allowed).

• Tennessee (1-1): An impressive prime-time victory over Oakland last week canceled out by a whipping at the hands of the Colts Sunday. Steve McNair’s health will continue to be the story for the Titans’ offense, but what in tarnation happened to the vaunted defense in the RCA Dome?

• Baltimore (1-1): Another team that’s tough to figure out to this point. Last week, the Ravens got manhandled at Pittsburgh, but this week, behind Jamal Lewis’s record-setting 295-yard rushing performance, Baltimore plastered the Browns by 20. I think the Ravens will get on a roll in the coming weeks, although a true test will be posed by KC when it visits the Ravens in two weeks. Otherwise, with any luck, Ray Lewis & Co. could be 7-1 at the halfway point, given their upcoming schedule.

• Cincinnati (0-2): The Bungles were true to form in their opening-day 30-10 home loss to Denver, but Sunday they gave the once-mighty Raiders a stunning scare before bowing by a field goal in the final seconds at Oakland. There will be no cakewalks for Cincy in the coming weeks, but its revitalized play in a tough road environment Sunday bodes well for the long-term improvement of the woeful franchise under new coach Marvin Lewis.

• Cleveland (0-2): They’re saying "Uh-oh" on the shore of Lake Erie, where the Browns — playoff participants last January — have dropped both games out of the block, although in completely different fashions. A week ago they dropped a 9-6 defensive struggle to high-powered Indy; Sunday they were thrashed by 20 to Art Modell’s hated Ravens. Too early to tell in which direction this team is headed.

• Pittsburgh (1-1): Many feel that the Steelers are the best in their division, but after getting pasted by the Chiefs by three touchdowns — especially after leading at one point 17-7 — Pittsburgh has its work cut out in the coming weeks. Its match-up with the improved Bengals this Sunday will be interesting to watch (if not entertaining).

• Denver (2-0): Hmmmm. I didn’t expect this, frankly. Last week the Jake Plummer–led Broncos not surprisingly beat up on the Bengals, but another impressive road win on Sunday (37-13 over San Diego) is making people sit up and take notice. Still, Plummer separated his shoulder in the contest and could be out for a while, but back-up Steve Beuerlein picked up the offense where it left off on Sunday. The Broncos will have a tough test next Monday when they host the hated Raiders.

• Oakland (1-1): Speaking of.... Looks like it might be the end of the road for the Silver(-haired) and Black(-eyed). The Raiders got pounded by the Titans in Week 1, then followed that up with a dismal performance against Cincinnati on Sunday. Oakland was truly fortunate to escape with the 23-20 victory, and QB Rich Gannon threw for only 103 yards in the win. Luckily for the Raiders, they have a fairly tame schedule once they escape the Rocky Mountains next week. Still, they have looked nothing like the defending AFC champion, and seem still to be suffering the hangover of their Super Bowl destruction at the hands of the Bucs. We’ll see.

• San Diego (0-2): A lot of folks thought the Bolts would be a lot better than they’ve been over the course of the first two weeks. Instead, San Diego has lost both games handily, including its 27-14 defeat at KC last week and the aforementioned loss at home to Denver. Drew Brees was just 20-for-41 for 182 yards on Sunday, and LaDainian Tomlinson failed for the second straight game to reach 100 yards rushing. Might be time for Flutie magic!

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com

 


Issue Date: September 15, 2003
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2003 |2002
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