BY DAN
KENNEDY
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Friday, May 23, 2003
Her brilliant career.
Herald columnist Tom
Keane today makes two
points about Suffolk County sheriff Andrea Cabral's switch from
independent to Republican and, now, to Democrat. I think he's wrong
on one, but he's surely right on the other.
1. Keane notes that, last fall,
Cabral promised then-governor Jane Swift that she would seek
election in 2004 as a Republican if Swift appointed her to fill the
vacancy. Keane flatly asserts that Cabral "broke her word" by
becoming a Democrat, adding that "in politics, it seems, promises
often carry little weight -- which may explain why so many voters are
cynical about politicians."
Keane's take is accurate but
facile. He goes on to detail how Cabral was disrespected by Governor
Mitt Romney. As Swift herself knows, Romney's preferred mode for
female officials is to walk 10 feet behind him with their
mouths shut, à la Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Okay,
Cabral broke her word, but how much was she supposed to
take?
And how about that dime-drop re her
unpaid
student loans that occurred
approximately three nanoseconds after she was photographed whooping
it up with Ted Kennedy? If she had doubted her party-switching
decision at all, she certainly knew then that she'd done the right
thing.
2. Keane argues that Cabral might
well have lost the election by switching parties. This is
counterintuitive -- other analysts have mainly focused on the fact
that Suffolk County is overwhelmingly Democratic -- but here, I
think, Keane gets it just right.
Cabral, Keane observes, will almost
certainly face a challenge in the Democratic primary from Boston city
councilor Steve Murphy. Keane writes:
Primary races are
low-turnout events, dominated in Boston by more conservative
voters, where a candidate's ability to get supporters to the polls
is decisive. Murphy has (next to Mayor Tom Menino) the city's most
powerful organization, well honed and capable of delivering.
Cabral, a political neophyte, has none.
By this calculus, Keane adds,
Cabral would actually have a far better chance in the November 2004
general election -- a presidential election, when turnout will be
high, attracting the liberal voters whom Cabral needs to win.
This was how former Republican
sheriff Ralph Martin did it. It's how Cabral might have done it as
well. Instead, perhaps without realizing it, she's chosen a much
tougher route.
posted at 8:24 AM |
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Dan Kennedy is senior writer and media critic for the Boston Phoenix.
